Forecasts of steel consumption in 2015

In 2015, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) predicts an increase in global steel demand by 2.0% and will reach 1594 Mt. „We expect that in the developed economies the increase in demand for steel will moderate. In time, in emerging and developing economies, this demand will grow. Said Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff – president of the Economic Committee of worldsteel.

There are several reasons why this forecast is subject to risk. The increase in US interest rates, expected in 2015, is likely to have a global impact. For capital flows creating instability in vulnerable emerging markets. At the same time, the forecast for emerging markets is conditioned both by the need for structural reforms and geopolitical tensions. As a result, the price of energy, globally, is a new risk factor. For China, the transition to a consumption-based economy is not without challenges and uncertainties.

In India, the situation is improving following the election of a new government that promises pro-business reforms. In 2015, structural reforms and increased confidence will support a future 6% increase in steel demand, but high inflation and fiscal consolidation remain risk factors for this forecast.

Steel consumption in China will increase by 0.8%, reaching 754.3 in 2015. However, the reduction of restrictions on the real estate market, in response to slower GDP growth. The one that could exceed the forecast. In Japan, a new increase in the consumption tax is expected to decrease the demand for steel by -1.5% in 2015.

Countries with an increase global steel demand

The year 2015 brings an increase in steel demand of 1.9% in the USA, and 3.5% in Mexico. In Central and South America, due to the drop in raw material prices and delayed structural reforms, the demand for steel in the entire region has been affected. However, it is expected that it will increase by 3.4% in 2015.

In the euro area, this increase is expected to be 2.9%. However, the EU faces new challenges, including disinflation and geopolitical tensions. The CIS was affected in 2014 by the crisis in Ukraine. In 2015, assuming a stabilization of the political situation, the demand for steel in the CIS will increase by 1.9%.

Source: http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2014/worldsteel-Short-Range-Outlook-2014-to-2015.html